Preparation of the Merchant Navy in Dangerous Times
by Published on 13th June 2024 10:24 AM
Preparation of the Merchant Navy in Dangerous Times
Michael Lloyd
If safeguarding the Nation's defence is considered the top priority, then the Government has failed in this responsibility for some years. The various service leaders cannot be exempt from blame for allowing this situation to occur during their time in office, particularly at this critical time. While we can agree with their critiques when they retire, it is a shame that they did not make such statements more strongly while in office.
In his seminal work on the Second World War, 'Their Finest Hour,' Churchill openly acknowledged that the U-boat threat to the Atlantic shipping lanes was the only thing that truly instilled fear in him during the war. This recognition of the Merchant Navy's pivotal role in the conflict underscores its historical significance and its continued relevance in the face of evolving maritime threats.
Merchant ships were the lifeline that kept Britain fed, fuelled, and fighting, and they and their crews were then, as will be now, frontline targets.
During that time, we had a Royal Navy that provided essential escorts, ensuring the Nation could continue the war and eventually prevail. The Merchant Navy's casualties were traumatic, far more significant than other services. Despite the lack of recognition, they persevered and sailed their ships to the end.
Do We Need the Merchant Navy?
The UK currently produces 60% of its domestic consumption, and waste is estimated at 6%. In 2020, it imported 46% of its food.
The UK is self-sufficient in petrol (and a net exporter) but not crude oil, diesel, or jet fuel.
Crude oil imports 70%.
Gas: The UK has proven reserves equal to 2.6 times its annual consumption.
Steel. In 2022, the United Kingdom produced approximately 5.96 million metric tons of crude steel, the lowest production level registered in the last 13 years. The closure of Tata Steel later this year will reduce steel output by 1.3 million tons.
Regarding imports, 8.12 million tons of iron ore were brought into the country in 2021, an increase compared to the previous year. That same year, pig iron imports increased to 38,000 metric tons.
The Threat at Sea.
When considering the threat to the Merchant Navy, it is crucial to envision the worst-case scenario. In future naval warfare, we can anticipate significant changes. There will be no secrecy, and the positions of all ships will be known to all parties, not just daily, but by the minute. If a convoy system is implemented, it cannot consist of the usual cluster of ships, as this could make it a target worthy of a tactical nuclear strike. The potential consequences of not adequately protecting the Merchant Navy are dire, underscoring the urgency and necessity of action.
Although Russia maintains a substantial submarine fleet, the rise of drone technology must significantly reassess naval warfare tactics in terms of offence and defence. Submarines will continue to pose a threat to merchant ships, especially when engaging with large troop-carrying vessels, even in conjunction with drones. However, drones will likely be the main threat to most merchant shipping instead of torpedoes, especially near coastlines where surface drones can also be used.
In ocean conditions, assuming the current state of development, most drone attacks will come from the air. As a result, the primary damage has shifted from below the waterline to the upper decks, particularly the bridge.
Given these changes, firefighting and medical training have become a priority.
The rapid development of aerial and aquatic military drones is ongoing. Iranian drones can already cover 1250 miles and carry substantial munitions, while the USA has developed drones with a range of several thousand nautical miles. The pace of drone development is so rapid that it is difficult to predict the capabilities that will be available to all parties, except to say that very few areas of the oceans will be out of their reach.
In the Atlantic, we would initially depend on the USA for protection. However, if China were to attack Taiwan or expand operations to Australia, the USA would need help to provide this protection. A protected lane system could be an option. Still, we would initially need more naval and air resources to implement it.
Aside from the Atlantic, we need to consider routes from Australasia. China now boasts the world's largest Navy. With the possibility of neutral India and South Africa, there will be no protection in the North Indian Ocean. This leaves routing into Antarctic waters via the Horn as an alternative. Australia and New Zealand do not have sufficient naval resources to offer protection, which could tempt China to expand its operations if it is successful in the occupation of Taiwan. The potential consequences of such a scenario are dire, underscoring the urgent need for enhanced protection measures.
Military air and waterborne drone developments continue to increase rapidly. The Iranian drones are already capable of 1250 miles with substantial munition deliverance ability, while the USA has already developed drones capable of several thousand nautical miles.
The development of these drones is continuing at such a rapid pace that it is impossible to predict what will be available to all protagonists except to say that there will be very few areas of the oceans where they cannot reach.
We could adopt a protected lane system, but again, this requires naval and air protection that we could not initially provide for the first years.
The Royal Navy.
The Royal Navy and Royal Marines have reduced by approximately 23.86% since 2000. In the year up to March 2023, they fell short of their recruitment targets by 27%.
The 2021 white paper aimed to have 24 frigates and destroyers in service by the "early 2030s," but based on previous MOD building experience, I anticipate achieving this goal by 2035 at the earliest. This would involve constructing another class of frigate, the Type 32.
In 10 years, we may have 24 escort ships to patrol trade routes globally, but, in reality, only around eight would be operational at any given time.
This situation falls short of a 'Golden Age.' as claimed by the Minister of Defence. If one carrier is at sea, only four ships would remain. Considering the need to protect RN supply ships and tankers, there would be no Royal Naval protection for Merchant Ships, akin to the start of the First and Second World Wars.
The Merchant Navy
The Government's definition of the Merchant Navy still focuses on ships registered in the UK. Still, it's important to note that these are mainly manned by foreign crews and owned by foreign entities. The true Merchant Navy is the men and women who are registered seafarers in the UK.
In 1998, proposals for British shipping included a fifteen-million-pound tax concession under the tonnage tax regime. However, British shipping companies, supported by the Chamber of Shipping, opposed reforms under the Race Relations Act 1976 due to potential job losses. They capitalised on the tax concession and substituted British seafarers with lower-paid foreign workers, resulting in a decline in the number of British seafarers, especially ratings.
In 2022, the approximate figures for active seafarers, excluding those serving in the RFA, were as follows: Officers: 9230, Cadet Officers: 1500, Ratings: 8000. Many of these serve on short sea service vessels, including harbour and inland watercraft essential in conflicts. The UK register listed 1023 ships as of 2023.
Ship owners are not obligated to employ British nationals or report the nationalities of their employed crew.
In times of danger, owners should be required to declare crew nationalities to the Maritime Coast Guard (MCA) every three months, facilitating the swift removal of individuals from hostile states if necessary. Regarding foreign owners, they can and probably will swiftly remove their ships from our registry in the event of any hostilities.
It may be possible to negotiate an agreement that, if the chance of hostilities drastically increases, all ships registered in the UK can be detained in any NATO port until their future is decided or released.
An estimated 30,000 crew members would be needed, accounting for leave and considering potential conflict-related requirements. In dealing with foreign crews, we want to keep on board, we could consider offering citizenship to those who volunteer to remain.
A Merchant Navy reserve was established briefly during the Cold War. Is something similar being planned?
Given the current geopolitical climate, the Royal Navy and Merchant Navy personnel will face similar maritime threats. As the Royal Navy is insufficient to safeguard the Merchant Navy, numerous ships may need to be taken up from trade for escorts and rescue missions. Additionally, force multipliers such as containerised weapons systems, remotely fired drones, and bulk carriers as auxiliary helicopter carriers could be utilised, with their crew designated as Reservists.
However, if we rely solely on shipowners, most Merchant ships and their crews would not be protected. In times of conflict. We can ensure equitable treatment for all personnel by integrating the Merchant Navy into the Royal Navy, especially as merchant ships would be prime targets in times of conflict. All personnel should be equipped with NBCD suits, survival suits, proper medical equipment, safety and firefighting gear, suitable life-rafts, and a trained medical orderly for each ship.
In addition, casualties or their dependants would be able to receive compensation and if prisoners of war, their pay would continue during their captivity.
Questions
Not a single penny from the defence budget has been earmarked for the future provision of specific equipment for the Merchant Navy. Is this to be allotted in the future?
How will we repair damaged shipping, and where will we obtain the necessary steel if our steel plants close?
Where are the dry docks that can accommodate large Merchant Ships? Not in the UK except for Belfast.
Abrahams and Challenger tanks weigh approximately 70 tons. What ports still have cranes capable of lifting these?
What air defences are available for defending the ports?
There used to be a Merchant Navy Defence course. Is a similar being planned?
Naval Control of Shipping
Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) is the central command for all NATO maritime forces. The Commander of MARCOM serves as the Alliance's prime naval advisor. Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) is the central command of all NATO naval forces, and the Commander of MARCOM is the prime maritime advisor to the Alliance.
Regrettably, their mission statement, 'The Way Ahead,' does not mention protecting the sea lanes or our Merchant Shipping. Not surprisingly, there is no permanent position for a senior Merchant Navy officer on their staff.
In the last World War, we had a well-functioning Naval Control of Shipping directing the movement of ships and convoys. This was revived in the 1960s during the Cold War on a provisional basis run by the RNVR. This has now been replaced by Naval co-operation and guidance for shipping (NCAGS). Naval personnel are trained to carry out NCAGS and establish and provide advice for the safe passage of merchant ships worldwide during peace, tension, crisis and war. NCAGS personnel act as a liaison between military commanders and the civil authorities. During war, the NCAGS organisation may be responsible for establishing a convoy.
NCAGS is used by many NATO countries during exercises and has been an essential part of the naval reserve’s commitment. This organisation is presently based in Brussels with AWNIS (Allied Worldwide Navigational Information System), which collates, coordinates, and communicates navigational safety and security information to merchant shipping and military authorities within an operational area.
It may be more beneficial for this organisation to be moved to MARCOM in Northwood or for a satellite organisation to be established in Northwood dealing purely with our national requirement, which, as opposed to the mainland of Europe, will probably have a far different agenda. Either way, we must establish our own NCAGS as soon as possible.
Conclusion.
This has been but a brief review of the current situation regarding the Merchant Navy leaving many questions unanswered.
A small detail highlighting the MOD's and the Government's current attitude toward the Merchant Navy is the release of the new D-Day commemorative 50p coin. It features the words "The Royal Navy, The Army, and the Royal Air Force," completely overlooking that the Merchant Navy had 864 ships present during D-Day, far more than the Royal Navy. Once again, the MN needs to be remembered.
As an island nation, our survival is heavily reliant on seaborne trade. Yet, the essential contribution of the Merchant Ships is continually overlooked.
Nothing has changed.
It is imperative to plan for the support of our island, emphasising the logistical importance of Merchant Ships and their protection. Unfortunately, this planning has not yet commenced, while the clock is ticking.
The latest objective statement of the Russian naval mission is "To enforce control over activities of foreign navies in the waters of the Northern Sea Route."
We do not need to read such a warning. If NATO fails to support Ukraine and Russia succeeds, the consequences will not stop there. Autocracies thrive on war, while democracies thrive on peace. Merely desiring peace will not magically make it happen. No angels are coming to our aid—only our children.
Some have expressed doubt regarding the willingness and capabilities of our youth. I disagree with that sentiment. However, if the Nation does not demonstrate care for the men and women serving in the Merchant Navy, why should we expect them to care about the Nation?
