The Perfect Storm??

[Tony Morcom]

Courtesy of our friends at gCaptain

New York Harbor Could See an 11 Foot Storm Surge

By gCaptain Staff On October 28, 2012



Latest track prediction of Hurricane Sandy via Wunderground.

(Bloomberg) — Hurricane Sandy was barreling northward along the U.S. East Coast as forecasters warned it would converge with two other systems to create a superstorm threatening to bring high winds, rain and a tidal surge that may inundate Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas.
Sandy, which killed as many as 58 people as it moved through the Caribbean, is predicted to make landfall late tomorrow or early Oct. 30. It is on track to come ashore in southern New Jersey before turning inland, according to the National Hurricane Center’s three-day forecast.
Authorities were poised to begin evacuations, utilities were preparing for power failures that may affect millions of people, and airlines made arrangements to cancel flights and move planes. The cyclone that will grow out of Sandy and two storms rushing eastward across the U.S. has been dubbed “Frankenstorm” by the National Weather Service.
“There is going to be a lot of rain and wind damage,” said Dan Pydynowski, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc., in a telephone interview. “This is going to be a much larger, more widespread storm than Hurricane Irene.”
The National Guard and Air Force put as many as 45,000 personnel in seven states on alert for possible duty in response to the storm, according to George Little, a spokesman for the Defense Department in Washington.
‘Days of Impacts’
“Because of the large size of the system and the slow motion, it’s going to be a long-lasting event, two to three days of impacts for a lot of people,” said James Franklin, branch chief at the hurricane center in Miami. “The kinds of things we are looking at ultimately would be wind damage, widespread power outages, heavy rainfall, inland flooding and again, somebody is going to get a significant surge event out of this.”
Louis Uccellini, director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, said Sandy’s winds will be felt as far away from the coast as Ohio and Michigan, and the system could be comparable to 1991’s so-called perfect storm. That nor’easter, in October of that year, eventually formed Hurricane Grace, and was chronicled in the best-selling book, “The Perfect Storm,” by Sebastian Junger.
Casinos Shutting
Sandy’s maximum sustained winds remained unchanged at 75 miles (120 kilometers) per hour, the hurricane center said today in an advisory before 8 a.m. New York time. It was centered about 260 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and about 395 miles south of New York, moving northeast at 10 mph. The storm is expected to have near-hurricane-force winds as it approaches the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow night, the Miami- based center said.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie ordered that the state’s barrier islands and casinos in Atlantic City be evacuated by 4 p.m. today. The governor asked residents to pay heed to the warnings and “be prepared for the worst here.”
In New York City, plans were being made today to start closing subway, bus and commuter-train systems at 7 p.m. today. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the city’s subway system, serves 8.5 million riders daily.
The storm may dump as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain on parts of the Northeast, the hurricane center said. The damage will be spread across a wider area than that left by a typical hurricane, the NHC’s Franklin said.
“Our track forecast error is on the order of 150 to 200 miles,” Franklin said. “We cannot be precise at this stage.”
Storm Surge
Franklin said the storm surge, in which ocean water is pushed ashore, will hit a larger area than Hurricane Irene last year. The storm also will be striking two days after the full moon, when tides are at their highest.
“The lunar tides, this is a dangerous period,” Uccellini said. “And with the slow movement of the storm you can go through two or three tidal cycles, which also contributes to the potential impact of this event.”
The National Hurricane Center said water may rise as much as 8 feet (2.4 meters) above ground with the storm surge from Ocean City, Maryland, to the Connecticut/Rhode Island border and 11 feet in Long Island Sound and Raritan Bay.
Uccellini said there is the potential for at least 12 inches of snow in West Virginia and lesser amounts in Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio.
The hurricane center’s five-day prediction shows the system turning north over Pennsylvania at tropical-storm strength before weakening as it crosses into New York State, over Lake Ontario and into Canada.
Power Failures
Power may be out as long as 10 days in some areas, according to a statement from the Edison Electric Institute, an industry trade group in Washington.
The storm may cause hardship for thousands, especially those that get hit by the snow and also lose power, said Mark Hoekzema, chief meteorologist at Earth Networks in Germantown, Maryland.
“Are you ready to potentially be without power for a week?” Hoekzema said by telephone. The windstorm that hit the Washington area in June “showed us how long it can take to get 3-plus-million people back, and in the Northeast Corridor, you have even more people,” he said.
Discussions are under way to evacuate parts of New York City and close subways if necessary, said Jerome Hauer, New York State’s homeland security commissioner.
Worst-Case Scenario
“The worst-case scenario is that the storm hits in the mid-Jersey area, with the right-sided winds,” Hauer said in an interview. “That forces water in the ocean into New York Harbor and we get significant flooding in New York City, particularly in lower Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens.”
CoreLogic Inc., which tracks real-estate information, said about 284,000 homes in seven U.S. states from Virginia to Massachusetts valued at almost $88 billion are at risk for possible storm-surge damage.
The system crossed Jamaica Oct. 24 and Cuba on Oct. 25, tracking north across the central Bahamas.
Sandy may have caused $1.4 billion to $2.4 billion in damage on Cuba, Jamaica and the Bahamas, according to Air Worldwide, a catastrophe-modeling firm in Boston.

[Captain Kong]

My friends in Norfolk VA said last night the storm surge has gone over the sea wall at their appartment block and flooded the ground floor units. Expecting the Power to be cut off shortly
Brian.

[John Pruden]

the replica of HMS bounty has been abandoned two crew are missing it would be a shame if she was lost forever to the storm.jp

[Captain Kong]

I saw that on the news,
BUT what were they doing sailing in the worst storm in US History?
maybe they should have had another mutiny and refused to sail.
I went on board her in Seattle but they would not let me climb the masts and yards.
Brian.

[Tony Wilding]

She has sunk, 2 believed missing.

[Captain Kong]

Does anyone know if it is the American `Bounty` or the one from Sydney,
I have been on board both of them.
Lovely ships.
No mention at all on the Anti British Broadcasting Corporation.
Cheers
Brian.

[Captain Kong]

Just recieved this message from a friend in Norfolk Virginia.
.
.The worst is over. We lost our electricity yesterday from 6:00.pm until 2:00 a.m. this morning. We did not lose any of our food in the refrigerator or the freezer. We never had any high winds and only moderate rain, but the storm surge was the problem. Our new seawall worked beautifully and the river only came up half way to the building. Both of our cars are fine and I suspect things we be fairly normal tomorrow in our area. All in all we did well. New York, New Jersey and the entire Northeast will get hit tonight around 2:00 a.m. They will get the brunt of this and the storm damage could be significant. That's about all from here.
.
.Cheers
Brian.

[John Pruden]

looks like new york is in for a bad night lets hope no deaths?jp

[Tony Morcom]

Does anyone know if it is the American `Bounty` or the one from Sydney,

It is the American one Brian. The crew member who is missing is the Captain for whom I enclose the following biography courtesy of the TallShipBounty.org web site: I am sure all our thoughts are for his family at this difficult time.

Biography - Captain Robin Walbridge


According to Captain Robin Walbridge, Bounty has no boundaries. As her captain, he is well known for his ability and desire to take Bounty to places that no ship has gone before. Captain Walbridge's philosophy is that all people of all ages should have the chance to see the great ships from the Golden Age of Sail - ships that have changed the course of history, made and destroyed nations, and have had an impact on us as a people and culture today.
Captain Walbridge is a quiet, self-effacing individual; yet, when you stop to consider all he has done in its entirety, collectively, it and he are pretty amazing. If you spend any time with him, you will realize that his loves are obvious: life, youth, the sea and HMS Bounty. He does not have children of his own, but has all the patience in the world when it comes to kids.
Robin entered the world of tall ships through the back door. Raised in St. Petersburg, Florida, he obtained his first raw boating experience when he borrowed a sailboat at age 18 and it proved to be a defining moment. By the time he owned a 38' schooner in his mid-twenties - the sea - any sea- was firmly in his blood. At 28, he secured his 50-ton license while working on the Miller houseboats on the Suwanee River in Florida where he was the field mechanic for five years. When not on the houseboats, he taught adult education and basic navigation to fishing and boat guides.
He went on to work on the Governor Stone in Apalachicola, Florida as Captain, conducting day sail programs, and crew training programs for the operation of the vessel. It was here he earned his 100-ton license.
Robin admits to sailing on the best and with the best when it comes to sail training education for youth. He became hooked on kids working with adjudicated youth as Captain for Vision Quest and the Bill of Rights. While on board the Bill of Rights, he worked on programs taking "hard-core" youth on-board from three months to 18 months. In 1993, he worked on Boy Scout programs on the Heritage of Miami. He developed sail training programs to take scouts on one-week voyages in the Florida Keys, including programs for children with disabilities. In his off-seasons, from 1993 – 2000, he was on-call as mate or engineer for Sea Education Association's (SEA) two vessels, Westwood and Corwith Cramer. Robin also spent some time on the 198' U.S. Brig Niagara of Erie, Pennsylvania, which only enhanced his fascination for square-rigged sailing.
Robin moved on to HMS Rose in 1993 as First and Second mate and went on to obtain his 500-ton Captain's license. He continued to work with youth sail training programs, developing programs for trainees along the eastern seaboard and Great Lakes. In 1995, he obtained his 1600-ton license.
Enter HMS Bounty in 1995. It was a labor of love from the beginning, and Robin has never looked back. Keeping her afloat has been a full-time occupation for many years. If it weren't for Robin's efforts, the ship would have sunk at the dock in Fall River, Massachusetts. During these financially difficult years, Robin organized programs with a local orphanage taking four to six young adults on as part of his crew. He also worked with an Ohio-based alternative school to give children an opportunity to find their love of the sea in a new environment.
The highlight of his career, however, is the two years and over 15 voyages spent training the crew of "Old Ironsides," the U.S.S. Constitution. He was at the helm as guest Captain/Advisor for the ship's inaugural sail in 1997 after 116 years of being dormant, a moment he remembers as "awe-inspiring," as many in his position would.
Under different owners, scores of crew, coast-wise port appearances along the East coast, Great Lakes and Europe, and extensive movie making, Robin continues to present Bounty to hundreds of thousands of fans. To Robin, Bounty is an extension of himself. Once a movie prop, built as an ocean-going vessel, she is a living classroom for the scores of children who have crossed her decks, and slept in her cabins.
When Bounty was in Boothbay Harbor Shipyard in Boothbay Harbor, Maine, finalizing her third phase of a total renovation, Robin oversaw in its entirety all phases of the restoration, with the ultimate goal of obtaining an SSV license. Now 50 years old, Bounty has lived many lives. If up to Captain Robin Walbridge, she will continue to thrill many, for many years to come.
It is people like Captain Robin Walbridge who keep the thrill of sail training and the art of square-rigged sailing alive. He has a life-time of effort and passion to show for it.
Captain Walbridge has studied naval architecture under David Wyman, former professor of the Maine Maritime Academy. When not under sail, rare in itself, Captain Walbridge loves building experimental kayaks. He has a commercial pilots license, loves photography and is an avid chess player, and one day, will live in Costa Rica.

[Reg Kear]

For those in peril.

Captain still missing as hurricane sinks Bounty - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)