Climate Change

[Red Lead Ted]

There you go John,

Discovering Australia’s first weather record
Published on 04 March 2010 by in Features


As a young American researcher working in Australia in the late 1970s, Robert McAfee made a startling discovery that would have a huge impact on Australian Climate History research, the weather diary of Lieutenant William Dawes. This is his story.
When I was a grad student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison I received a telegram from Professor Edward Linacre of Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia. To say I was stunned to receive this would be an understatement. The telegram offered me a position as a tutor in climatology in the School of Earth Sciences. I accepted this offer without hesitation.
During the next few months I completed requirements for my M.Sc. and arrived in Sydney.
Almost immediately Prof. Linacre put the idea in my head that my PhD thesis should focus on climate and history in Australia. This was very attractive to me as I enjoyed ‘digging’ around libraries and archives; it was like solving a great mystery.
My first task was to become familiar with Australian history. As an American I had no idea about the history and only a very elementary knowledge of the geography. Stereotypically my knowledge of Australia was limited to kangaroos and koalas and that classic film On the Beach. I read a number of general history texts and audited some history classes at Macquarie.
Prof. Gentilli in Perth, who was Australia’s premier climatologist made mention of some early sources, but on the whole he concluded there was little useful information for climate before about 1850. This did not discourage me, it only made me more determined.
So I began what would become nearly weekly forays to the Mitchell Library in Sydney where the historical records and archives of early Australia and New South Wales were kept. Initially I examined the published accounts of written by members of the First Fleet who arrived at Port Jackson in 1788. From these came leads to other sources, many unpublished. A great source of leads as well as data was the multivolume collection, “Historical Records of New South Wales.”
On one my expeditions of discovery to the Mitchell Library I made what I considered to be the crown jewel of my searches. While examining volumes of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society I was reading through a section called “Gifts Received”. This was a lengthy list of items donated, general a single line or two. Then an entry appeared: A Meteorological Journal at Port Jackson, 1788-1791 by Lieutenant William Dawes. I was excited beyond description. Immediately I asked one of the Librarians about the possibility that this might be in the Mitchell Library. There was an exhaustive search and it was not in the Mitchell.

Robert McAfee and the SEARCH Project's David Karoly
I wrote to the Royal Society in London and asked it the Meteorological journal was still in their possession. After some time I received a reply that it was there and would I like a copy. I was told it was quiet a large journal. I requested a copy and agreed to cover any costs for reproduction and postage. I received the journal compliments of the Royal Society. This would form a very substantial foundation for a history of climate in Australia.
The great climate history mystery unfolded brilliantly and I accumulated a hundred times the ‘clues’ which I had thought possible when I began this.
In 1981 I returned to the US to write my PhD thesis which was submitted in August of that year. The thesis was the culmination of five years of exhaustive research, documentation, and putting together as comprehensive as possible a history of the climate in SE Australia.
Looking back at this period some 30 years later it still brings joy to me for the good work which was accomplished there. It was an extraordinary humbling experience to be one of the fathers of historical climatological research and discovery for Australia. It enriched and made a positive impression for the rest of my life. Now it is gratifying to see my research being put to good use to expand the Australian climate history with the University of Melbourne’s expansive research undertaking on the subject.
By Robert McAfee

[Keith at Tregenna]

I would ask those who claim 'Climate Change is occurring exactly what that statement means.
Climate and weather are two different entities.

Sorry, thought you were aware of what this was.

Not going to type to much but, it has been covered many times in this thread, added a link for you.

K.

What is climate change? A really simple guide.

LINK: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24021772

How will climate change affect us?

There is uncertainty about how great the impact of a changing climate will be.

It could cause freshwater shortages, dramatically alter our ability to produce food, and increase the number of deaths from floods, storms and heatwaves. This is because climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events - though linking any single event to global warming is complicated.

[Ivan Cloherty]

There you go John,

Discovering Australia’s first weather record
Published on 04 March 2010 by in Features

As a young American researcher working in Australia in the late 1970s, Robert McAfee made a startling discovery that would have a huge impact on Australian Climate History research, the weather diary of Lieutenant William Dawes. This is his story.

Now it is gratifying to see my research being put to good use to expand the Australian climate history with the University of Melbourne’s expansive research undertaking on the subject.
By Robert McAfee

All very interesting, but not very informative about results unless you have his thesis to illuminate his meanderings.

Just as an aside, you can copy something from one book and it's called plagiarism, copy something from a number of books and it's called research, or even a basis for a thesis

[Red Lead Ted]

All very interesting, but not very informative about results unless you have his thesis to illuminate his meanderings.

Just as an aside, you can copy something from one book and it's called plagiarism, copy something from a number of books and it's called research, or even a basis for a thesis

Your entitled to your views Ivan, In the meantime the rest of us will jump out of the overheating washing machine into the overheating dryer Thesis or not we have to find a happy medium to satisfy an ever man made destructing world. Terry

[Captain Kong]

This past week we had the Spring Tides here in Fleetwood,
The tides did not increase by one inch as per tide tables.

I had a measure at my back fence on this quayside. I monitor the tides as I am right on the waters edge.
So we are OK at the moment from floods from melting ice.
iT IS WINTER AND IT IS VERY COLD AND FROSTY.
Brian

[Keith at Tregenna]

According to a earlier Environment Agency, over 5 million properties – that's one in five homes – are at risk of flooding.
…

Areas of the UK affected in this way include:

Merseyside.
Buckinghamshire.
Wiltshire.
Lincoln, Gainsborough, Boothby Graffoe, Cleethorpes in Lincolnshire.
Yorkshire.
Cumbria.

K.

Climate breakdown will make flooding in the UK worse, and it's already a huge problem.


https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate...-risk-flooding

[vic mcclymont]

I am a sceptic when it comes to so called climate change, no one can prove beyond a shadow of doubt that man is the cause of the change.
Yes, there are changes taking place, man to blame? not wholly.
Let us examine the facts, according to the BBC the past decade has been the warmest on record and that global temperature has been rising slowly. Fact, between 1940 and 1970, global temperatures dropped.
The rise in temperature coincided with a spike in the rise in Co2, someone linked them and presto, Climate change was borne.
Some Scientists believe that we are heading for a global cooling period which could last for up to 50 years; they have happened before and is part of the earths cycle, no mention on the BBC. Some scientists believe that the computer models are inaccurate and over exaggerate the influence of Co2.
The computer models do not take into account the suns influence on the earth, which is a major feature in our climate.
The earth’s magnetic field is weakening and many scientists believe that the poles will flip one day. Again this influence is not factored in on any climate computer models.
The earth’s magnetic field protects us from unwanted external influences; the weak fields lead damaging rays entering our atmosphere (similar to the ozone scare).
I read online a few days ago an article by a group of American Scientists, which has mysteriously disappeared.
The article stated that as a result of the melting glaciers in Greenland, cold water was entering the various currents in the Atlantic Ocean. This water is cold and will effect and change the pattern of the current flow and could cause the Gulf Stream to cease flowing leading to an Ice Age in Northern Europe.
Take your pick, who do you believe? Does anyone know the answer?
That great bastion of our Democracy the Biased Broadcasting Corporation, blasts us every night with doom and gloom regarding the planet, but sends numerous reporters to Australia tor report on the fires, why? Think of the Co2 footprint.
Send a report to Glasgow to report on a conference, which will not take place for another ten months or so? Co2 footprint.
Vic

- - - Updated - - -

Flooding in the UK, yes it has happened.
1) Flooding caused by not being allowed to dredge rivers due to an EU Directive. Rivers became blocked and could not deal with the amount of water flowing.
2) Numerous houses built on flood plains, nothing to do with climate. Flood plains allow rivers to overflow and protect other vital areas.
3) When was the last time you seen a sludge gulper at work, most of the drains in the streets are blocked.
Vic

[Keith Tindell]

Who are we Vic?, but mere mortals, being fed information from all directions, and who to believe. Cities now trying to be carbon free in the next 10 years, crazy, watch out, they will be looking to tax all sorts, BBQ banned or to licensed ?, we really are being led half the time, but i take your point, i am just someone from a bygone age with not an O level to my name, kt

[Ivan Cloherty]

Your entitled to your views Ivan, In the meantime the rest of us will jump out of the overheating washing machine into the overheating dryer Thesis or not we have to find a happy medium to satisfy an ever man made destructing world. Terry

Terry, it's not a question of my views, I actually didn't state any, I was merely wondering where the results of his five year investigation where, all I could see was a self indulgent report of what he had done and not a conclusion or even an assumption there-in. Alas your reference to over heating washing machines and tumble driers therefore has no significance to the context of my previous post, but it's a good simile for something no , cheers

[Red Lead Ted]

Terry, it's not a question of my views, I actually didn't state any, I was merely wondering where the results of his five year investigation where, all I could see was a self indulgent report of what he had done and not a conclusion or even an assumption there-in. Alas your reference to over heating washing machines and tumble driers therefore has no significance to the context of my previous post, but it's a good simile for something no , cheers

Read on Ivan if you want any more info just ask Terry.

The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change

Australian scientists take 6 degrees of global warming off the table, say it is closer to 2 degrees
Anthony Watts / May 28, 2013
From the University of Melbourne
Scientists narrow global warming range
Australian scientists have narrowed the predicted range of global warming through groundbreaking new research.
Scientists from the University of Melbourne and Victoria University have generated what they say are more reliable projections of global warming estimates at 2100.
The paper, led by Dr Roger Bodman from Victoria University with Professors David Karoly and Peter Rayner from the University of Melbourne and published in Nature Climate Change today, found that exceeding 6 degrees warming was now unlikely while exceeding 2 degrees is very likely for business-as-usual emissions.

This was achieved through a new method combining observations of carbon dioxide and global temperature variations with simple climate model simulations to project future global warming.
Dr Bodman said while continuing to narrow the range even further was possible, significant uncertainty in warming predictions would always remain due to the complexity of climate change drivers. “This study ultimately shows why waiting for certainty will fail as a strategy,” he said. “Some uncertainty will always remain, meaning that we need to manage the risks of warming with the knowledge we have.”
The study found 63% of uncertainty in projected warming was due to single sources – such as climate sensitivity, followed by future behaviour of the carbon cycle and the cooling effect of aerosols – while 37% of uncertainty came from the combination of these sources.
“This means that if any single uncertainty is reduced – even the most important, climate sensitivity – significant uncertainty will remain,” Dr Bodman said.
Professor Karoly said the study reinforced the importance of strong action on climate change.
“Our results reconfirm the need for urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to avoid exceeding the global warming target of 2 degrees needed to minimise dangerous climate change,” he said.
Dr Bodman is Postgraduate Research Fellow at Victoria University’s Centre for Strategic Economic Studies. Professor Karoly and Professor Rayner are from the University of Melbourne’s School of Earth Sciences and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate
System Science.